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The Extinction Probability Tracking Project



YEARS UNTIL EXTINCTION: 22
Confidence of 80%
Based on oil depletion, methane release, and human overpopulation - see topics below.

Interestingly, two of the three crises analyzed so far suggest an identical extinction date: 2036. The third, overpopulation, has been given the same date in the graph as it's made possible by oil and likely will continue to worsen even as resources decline until such point as it collapses.


Image 1: The first bar represents the current year of 2014. The second bar is a composite
of the three problems analyzed so far. At this point, 2036 is the composite date. The final
three bars represents each of the problems analyzed.


There are so many crises facing our planet that sometimes it can be difficult to get a sense of how all of these problems integrate. So, over the next few months, I'm going to qualify and quantify all these different horrors, consolidate them, and develop an algorithm for tracking just where we are on the path to our own extinction.

Listed below are the various forces that are threatening humanity and all the other species on our planet. If you click on any topic, you will be taken to a comment page. Please take a moment and review other comments, if any, and add your thoughts on the severity of the threat, what metric should be used to measure it, and how far we've gone down that particular path.
The Extinction Probability Tracking Components
Methane
Historically, methane has been in the atmosphere at concentrations ranging from 300 ppb to 700 ppb extending back more than . . . There's more
Overpopulation
In nature, virtually every species will grow or decrease in number based on available resources. Those resources include food and . . . There's more
Ocean Acidification, Warmth, and Death
For eons, the world ocean has been a carbon sink, helping to mediate changes of CO2 in the atmosphere. Since . . . There's more
Peak Oil
Peak oil was inevitable from the moment we started using it. Oil is a nonrenewable resource, so depletion is inevitable . . . There's more
Peak Net Energy
Peak net energy refers to the concept that while there is still a significant amount of energy available in various . . . There's more
Anthropogenic Global Warming
My premise: At some point, the threat from AGW was essentially zero. However, since widespread fossil fuel use, the threat . . . There's more
Deforestation / Habitat Destruction
At the beginning of IC this was not much of a threat. Although there are some exceptions, usually nature could . . . There's more
Fresh Water Limits
There is a relatively fixed amount of available fresh water. As human population has increased the amount available per capita . . . There's more
Economic Collapse
Globalization, excessive debt, hyperinflation/deflation, and other aspects of the economy will all contribute to its demise, which in turn . . . There's more
Resource Depletion
Oil and water are two resources that are used in large amounts. However, there are other resources that are just . . . There's more
Nuclear/chemical Accidents/Nuclear Plant Meltdown
Fukushima has been on everyone's minds lately. However, there are more than 400 nuclear reactors on the planet. When the . . . There's more
Nuclear war
Nuclear war has been a threat since the first bomb was developed. We don't hear as much as about it . . . There's more
Pandemics
The more people there are and the more crowded together we are, the more likely we are to experience pandemics . . . There's more
Pollution
I'm not sure that this should be included in this list, but input is welcomed . . . There's more
Peak food
According to the U.N., there are a billion malnourished people on the planet. The more people we add, the less . . . There's more
Grid Collapse
The Olduvai Theory as developed by Richard Duncan applies to many of the topics in this experiment. But in particular . . . There's more
Species Extinction
Humans aren't the only species at risk - far from it. Many scientists claim that we are in the beginning stages . . . There's more
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